Let’s take a look at the Tahoe Park area of Sacramento. What are the boundaries to Tahoe Park? As you may know, the Tahoe Park neighborhood is comprised of four sections as shown below.

Let’s think further about the neighborhood boundaries above. If you are local, do you see any big value differences between some of the bordering areas such as Tallac Village, Colonial Heights, Elmhurst, Oak Park or UC Med Center? Some of these portions are competitive or more similar to each other, but others are VERY different neighborhoods despite sharing a street border such as Stockton Blvd.

What sort of boundaries have you seen make a big difference in real estate values in the real estate market? Maybe you’re thinking of a certain dividing street, a freeway, or a newly constructed subdivision in the midst of an older tract. And do you think the Assesor has taken into consideration these important boundaries when assessing your Sacramento area property?

Feel free to contact us with any real estate questions and insight into property taxes. We’re here to help. 916.595.3735.

* Data is based on Sacramento MLS for all single family detached properties in Sacramento.

You be the appraiser here. What do you see in the trend graphs below when looking at the past years of sales? Is there anything you notice to be different or similar when comparing the two graphs? Do you think the Sacramento County Assessor has kept in touch with declining property values in the Anatolia neighborhood of Rancho Cordova? If you are a home owner, please speak on.

Past three years of sales:

Past one year of sales: 

7/25/2000 – $110,000 sale
7/16/2002 – $278,000 sale
8/18/2004 – $435,000 sale
2/10/2005 – $459,000 sale
9/08/2008 – $377,500 sale  (maybe a short sale – did not list in MLS)
5/01/2009 – $104,250 (transfer to bank – foreclosure)
7/13/2009 – $140,000 sale

What do you see? Does anything stand out to you? Let me know if you have any questions about the local real estate market or your neighborhoood. With the decline of property values in the Sacramento Region, it makes it very important to keep make sure that the Assessor reconciles their assessed value to a consistent level of true market value (it’s not always the same – at all).

This graph takes a view of the entire city of Stockton and is based on information in MLS for all single family detached sales (green dots) under $1,000,000. It’s interesting to note a dramatic change in the market beginning in the latter part of 2007. There had previously been few properties sold under $100,000, but that certainly shifted, didn’t it? It looks like the upper end of the market began to get squeezed harder around that time too. If you remember, housing inventory levels in the market increased drastically in the latter part of 2007, so we saw a steep decline in property values because of the vast oversupply of houses for sale (and therefore more agrressive pricing to compete against each other for available buyers).  

City of Stockton Real Estate Market Data:

• 13,745 sales in Stockton over the past 36 months (SFR detached)
• 1,679 sales between 01/20/2007 – 01/19/2008
• 5,924 sales between 01/20/2008 - 01/19/2009
• 6,142 sales between 01/20/2009 – 01/19/2010
• 1,172 sales in the past 90 days
• 580 current actives
• 730 current active short sales
• 866 current pendings
• 75% of all sales over the past year were bank-owned
• 11.5% of all sales over the past year were short sales

Keep us posted if you have any questions about the data above. You are welcome to comment below as well as share insight about life or the real estate market in Stockton CA. Please contact us if you have any questions about the local market and the property tax appeal process in the city of Stockton or San Joaquin County.

One of the first things I do to dissect market conditions is run a general search of all sales in the entire city or area where the subject property is located. In this case, I plotted sales in the city of Vacaville under $1,000,000. There were definitely sales above this level, but I took them out since the graph makes better sense without the upper-end of the market. Can you see a period of increase and then big decline? Do you notice too what’s happened to the upper level of the market? 

The next thing I do in the process of market analysis is take a look at a more narrow geographic search. This ends up being whatever boundaries I determine for the subject neighborhood. In this case, the parameters were less than one square mile and consisted of homes of similar age and overall quality. Does this neighborhood graph seem to follow the trend pattern above from the city of Vacaville?

Thirdly, I look at all listings, contingents and pendings within the immediate neighborhood. Though these are not sales, they can be strong indicators of what is happening in the market or where it is heading. For example, it says something about the market if all listings and pendings are higher, the same or lower than the most recent sales in the neighborhood. Lately, the supply of listings has been lower, so many properties are moving quickly and its common to see multiple offers and contract prices higher than asking price due to increased competition.

Next I put a square footage parameter on sales in the defined neighborhood to see what similar-sized properties are doing (as opposed to looking at all sales in the neighborhood, which definitely includes non-similar properties). Granted, the spectrum for GLA below is quite wide, but in this case there were few sales within the neighborhood even in this parameter, so it was important to widen the bracket a bit to get a better glimpse of the market. As you can see from this graph when compared to the one directly above, houses with a larger size tend to sell toward the middle to upper end of the neighborhood market. After doing these initial steps, it starts to become a bit clearer what sort of value range the subject might fit in.

The steps above are only a few initial steps in the market analysis process to help build a general framework for viewing the local market. I could honestly go on and on because there are so many factors to consider when appraising a house, and many conversations to have with local agents also.

Let me know if you have any questions about the valuation process or a need for any specific research as it pertains to your property or a tax appeal.

The graph is based on single family detached sales recorded in BAREIS (under 1.6 million dollars). There was only one sale above this level around 2.5 million, so it was most relevant to push that lone ranger to the side.

What’s been happening the Rancho Murieta real estate market? Below are two graphs consisting of all single family detached sales and listings in Rancho Murieta per Sacramento area Metrolist. What do you see? Does anything stand out to you?

I’d be very curious to hear from home owners in Rancho Murieta about their community. What do you enjoy most about RM? What do you think your neighborhood has to offer to prospective buyers? How has Rancho Murieta fared during the housing bubble burst? What sort of impact do you think the foundation troubles in Rancho Murieta South has had on the RM market?

Let me know if you have any questions about property value and appealing your property taxes in Rancho Murieta.

All sales over the past 36 months in Carmichael are listed below in blue and all sales in Fair Oaks are displayed in green.

It’s interesting to see an overall common trend for both Carmichael & Fair Oaks, though not ultimately surprising since the communities tend to overall have a somewhat similar appeal in the marketplace (though Fair Oaks has a slight edge as local Realtor Nate Sisam mentions below). Despite there being niches in both communities that may be superior to other areas, and a slightly higher median price level in Fair Oaks, it seems that the ups and downs of the real estate market over the past few years have been taken in stride for both of these communities. In fact, the median price level for Fair Oaks over the past year was only 2% higher than Carmichael during the first 6 months of the year, and 4% higher during the past two consecutive quarters. For reference, the latest unemployment rate in Carmichael as of November 2009 is 9.2%, whereas the unemployment rate in Fair Oak si 7.0%. The rate of unemployment in Sacramento County as a whole for November 2009 is 12.5%.

Sacramento Realtor Nate Sisam gives us further insight:

Fair Oaks and Carmichael are both established neighborhoods that offer people larger than overage lot sizes and diverse architecture. It has always been that Fair Oaks commanded a slightly higher price due to several key elements. Fair Oaks was one of the first established “Country communities” in the 20′s-40′s with a rich history in Olive and Citrus farming. Today that heritage is still evident when looking at property in Fair Oaks. Additionally the Fair Oaks Village brings the community together and adds to the charm of the area. From an accessibility standpoint Fair Oaks is slightly more freeway accessible. I would note that these communities are diverse and that pockets within each of them could be considered equal.

What do you think of the graph above? Does anything stand out to you? If you live or work in Carmichael or Fair Oaks, what do you enjoy about the community? If you had your choice to live in either of these areas, which would you choose? Comments are welcome below.