I thought it would be interesting to plot sales in the city of Benicia over the past five years to get a panoramic view of the ups and downs of the market. What do you see? I think the trend somewhat follows the pattern of a rainbow.
The graph is based on single family detached sales recorded in BAREIS (under 1.6 million dollars). There was only one sale above this level around 2.5 million, so it was most relevant to push that lone ranger to the side.
Rancho Murieta is a CDP in Sacramento County off of Jackson Road and has somewhat of a secluded feel due to its location miles away from other suburban tracts. The community consists of two separate parts called Rancho Murieta North and Rancho Murieta South. Rancho Murieta is a retirement community to many, and is also attractive to many families. As of November 2009 Rancho Murieta has the second lowest unemployment rate in Sacramento County at 3.9% per EDD (Gold River is 2.1%).
What’s been happening the Rancho Murieta real estate market? Below are two graphs consisting of all single family detached sales and listings in Rancho Murieta per Sacramento area Metrolist. What do you see? Does anything stand out to you?
I’d be very curious to hear from home owners in Rancho Murieta about their community. What do you enjoy most about RM? What do you think your neighborhood has to offer to prospective buyers? How has Rancho Murieta fared during the housing bubble burst? What sort of impact do you think the foundation troubles in Rancho Murieta South has had on the RM market?
Let me know if you have any questions about property value and appealing your property taxes in Rancho Murieta.
I’m wrapping up an report tonight for an investor in Carmichael. While crunching numbers and running data, I decided to do a little comparison of sales in Carmichael and Fair Oaks. So I graphed all detached single family residential sales (from MLS) over the past three years and came up with the following trend graph. I only included sales less than 1.5 million since there are a very limited number of properties above that level.
All sales over the past 36 months in Carmichael are listed below in blue and all sales in Fair Oaks are displayed in green.
It’s interesting to see an overall common trend for both Carmichael & Fair Oaks, though not ultimately surprising since the communities tend to overall have a somewhat similar appeal in the marketplace (though Fair Oaks has a slight edge as local Realtor Nate Sisam mentions below). Despite there being niches in both communities that may be superior to other areas, and a slightly higher median price level in Fair Oaks, it seems that the ups and downs of the real estate market over the past few years have been taken in stride for both of these communities. In fact, the median price level for Fair Oaks over the past year was only 2% higher than Carmichael during the first 6 months of the year, and 4% higher during the past two consecutive quarters. For reference, the latest unemployment rate in Carmichael as of November 2009 is 9.2%, whereas the unemployment rate in Fair Oak si 7.0%. The rate of unemployment in Sacramento County as a whole for November 2009 is 12.5%.
Sacramento Realtor Nate Sisam gives us further insight:
Fair Oaks and Carmichael are both established neighborhoods that offer people larger than overage lot sizes and diverse architecture. It has always been that Fair Oaks commanded a slightly higher price due to several key elements. Fair Oaks was one of the first established “Country communities” in the 20′s-40′s with a rich history in Olive and Citrus farming. Today that heritage is still evident when looking at property in Fair Oaks. Additionally the Fair Oaks Village brings the community together and adds to the charm of the area. From an accessibility standpoint Fair Oaks is slightly more freeway accessible. I would note that these communities are diverse and that pockets within each of them could be considered equal.
What do you think of the graph above? Does anything stand out to you? If you live or work in Carmichael or Fair Oaks, what do you enjoy about the community? If you had your choice to live in either of these areas, which would you choose? Comments are welcome below.
Here is a quick trend graph for you of all sales in the city of Fairfield over the past 12 months (red dots) as well as all current pendings (blue dots). What do you notice? Does anything stand out to you? Can you decipher any citywide trends based on this scatter graph? By the way, the unemployment rate in Fairfield as of November 2009 is 13.1%.
I know citywide graphs are not as descriptive as neighborhood-specific graphs or even if we looked at a specific square footage or age range in Fairfield. Just take the graph above for what it’s worth. It’s interesting to see six of the highest sales of the year over the past six months. Does it seem too that the lowest end of the market is a tad higher than the lowest point during the beginning of the year?
This is a graph I put together earlier today for a home owner as part of the total package for appealing his property taxes. Read More
I wrote previously about the “Bursting of the Duplex Market in Sacramento“, so I figured I’d also provide a graph of the fourplex market so we can see visually what has Read More
We hear so many voices in today’s real estate market talk about the foreclosure rate decreasing in the Sacramento Region. Is that true? Are there less REO (bank-owned) sales today than there were two or three years ago? Let’s look at some hard numbers below for Sacramento County.
The information above is based on all residential sales listed in Sacramento Metrolist over the past two years. Overall, it’s true that there were less bank-owned sales in Sacramento County during the last 12 months in comparison to the year before that. The foreclosure rate decreased by 5% overall, but the interesting thing is that short sales increased by 7% during this same time period. What do you make of that? Have short sales simply replaced what would have been a similar rate of foreclosure for this year? As a home owner or real estate agent, have you found banks to be more receptive to working with you to do a short sale? Comments welcome.
www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com The Up and Down Dynamic of Foreclosures and Short Sales in Sacramento County
What’s been happening in the Gold River real estate market over the past several years? Gold River is a census designated place located just east of Rancho Cordova, south of the American River, and north of Highway 50. This HOA community has 25 separate villages and a combination of detached and attached housing – all single family residential. Gold River has the lowest unemployment rate in Sacramento County right now at 2.1% as of September 2009, but that does not mean that home values have been unaffacted.
What do you notice about the graph above? It looks like the upper end of the market above $550,000 has pretty much disappeared during 2009. It’s also evident that in the midst of a downward trend over the past several years that there have been few sales under $300,000. What else do you see? If you are a local Realtor or home owner in Gold River, what insight do you have into your market, and why is Gold River desirable to buyers in the marketplace?
Gold River Real Estate Market Data:
The lower Western portion of the Gold River area is comprised of a subdivision called “Gold River Station”. Since Gold River Station is not a part of the Gold River HOA, it was prudent to look at data separately from Gold River. Sometimes outsiders to the area get confused about Gold River Station and therefore lump it in with Gold River, but it’s not a part of the Gold River neighborhood.
It’s not hard to see that there is a big value difference between Gold River and Gold River Station. Whereas there are few sales under $300,000 in Gold River, it appears that most recent sales in Gold River Station sold under $300,000. What else do you notice when comparing the graphs?
Feel free to contact me at 916-595-3735 or info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com if you have any questions about the local real estate market or any appraisal needs.
www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com Gold River Market Trends: Past 3 Years of Sales
Do you remember several years ago in the Sacramento area when duplexes were selling for $400,000-$500,000+ like it was nothing? Well, the housing bubble burst and the residential-income market came crashing down along with everything else.
The graph below displays all sales in Sacramento County for duplex properties. I know, Sacramento County is an enormous territory, but sometimes viewing large ares helps to see an overall trend.
What do you notice when looking at all duplex sales in Sacramento county? It seems the bulk of sales are well under $300,000, and that the median sales price level easily lost $200,000 or more over the past three years. Ouch. There certainly are an enormous portion of sales between $100,000 to $200,000 too, aren’t there?
Let’s take a closer look at a specific area in Sacramento by viewing sales in North Sacramento in the 95815 and 95838 zip codes. No, that’s not a ski slope, but a trend graph of all duplex sales.
It’s interesting to see what looks like two markets at hand above: One market below $100,000 and another market hovering between $150,000-$175,000. Market segmentation (bifurcation) is common depending on condition, location, size, or even the nature of the sale – short sale vs foreclosure vs typical arms-length transaction.
One more. What’s happened in the city of Rancho Cordova’s duplex market over the past thirty six months? No surprises. It looks similar to the graphs above.
When it comes to duplexes in Rancho Cordova and surrounding areas of Sacramento, the majority of recent sales are reo properties (bank-owned). For example, in a recent duplex appraisal I just completed in a Sacramento neighborhood, 84% of all duplex sales over the past 12 months within this neighborhood were REO sales and 10% of all sales were Short Sales. It’s not an easy market when 94% of all sales carry some level of distress.
Contact me at 916-595-3735 or info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com if you have any questions.
www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com The Bursting of the Duplex Market in Sacramento
I thought it would be interesting to take a look at Rancho Cordova sales over the past several years and simulataneously check out unemployment rates during that same time period. Is there a relationship between unemployment and the value of real estate? Generally speaking, the higher the unemployment rate, there is a good chance of lower home prices because the probability of buyers being able to purchase houses at higher prices decreases.
The trend graph below records all single family detached sales in the city of Rancho Cordova through Sacramento Area Metrolist. The unemployment figures are based on data provided by EDD. What do you see in the graph? Does anything stand out to you or surprise you about the sales (blue dots) or listed unemployment rate?
Below is a view of the past 12 months of sales. As can be seen, the unemployment rate has risen sharply over the past year. It looks like overall the top of the market has seen a decline in property values. At first glance, when viewing a graph like this, it’s easy to gloss over the details, but when looking closely, it’s clear that there are less sales at higher levels over the past months, aren’t there? More specifically, there are few sales above the $400,000 level over the past 180 days.
I don’t want to be misleading in any way by indicating that the unemployment rate is the sole determining factor for property values. That’s not what I am saying. I think there is a relationship between unemployment and the housing market, but that unemployment is only one of the factors involved. This point is illustrated perfectly by a current phenomenon in many sub-markets in the Sacramento Region. Bidding wars, multiple offers, and higher prices have become more commonplace for certain price levels. Despite unemployment rising, the lower supply of housing inventory over the past months has really helped to fuel this phenomenon because there have been more willing buyers than available houses (and prices are very attractive too because of how far they have come down from several years ago). Other factors to consider that may impact the real estate market are supply and demand, governmental regulations, interest rates, consumer confidence in the economy, etc…
Keeping an eye on the market and being in touch with local trends is all a part of the package for putting together very strong property tax appeals. Please let us know if you have any questions. You can call 916-595-3735 or email info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com.
http://www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com What is the relationship between home values and unemployment? A look at Rancho Cordova
I put together a series of city-wide graphs to show the past three years of home sales within Folsom, El Dorado Hills, Rancho Cordova & Citrus Heights. Read More
The cities of Los Banos and Patterson are located in the Central Valley of California off of Interstate 5 in Merced County and Stanislaus County respectively. Read More
