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Market Trends for the “Anatolia” area of Rancho Cordova: What do you see?

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

Here are a couple of trend graphs below for the 95742 zip code of Rancho Cordova. This area is comprised mostly of “Anatolia”, but also consists of a development called “Sunridge”, which is not part of the Anatolia HOA

You be the appraiser here. What do you see in the trend graphs below when looking at the past years of sales? Is there anything you notice to be different or similar when comparing the two graphs? Do you think the Sacramento County Assessor has kept in touch with declining property values in the Anatolia neighborhood of Rancho Cordova? If you are a home owner, please speak on.

Past three years of sales:

Past one year of sales: 

The Bursting of the Duplex Market in Sacramento

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

Do you remember several years ago in the Sacramento area when duplexes were selling for $400,000-$500,000+ like it was nothing? Well, the housing bubble burst and the residential-income market came crashing down along with everything else.

The graph below displays all sales in Sacramento County for duplex properties. I know, Sacramento County is an enormous territory, but sometimes viewing large ares helps to see an overall trend.

Duplex Sales Past Three Years in Sacramento County Trend Graph by Lundquist Appraisal

What do you notice when looking at all duplex sales in Sacramento county? It seems the bulk of sales are well under $300,000, and that the median sales price level easily lost $200,000 or more over the past three years. Ouch. There certainly are an enormous portion of sales between $100,000 to $200,000 too, aren’t there? 

Let’s take a closer look at a specific area in Sacramento by viewing sales in North Sacramento in the 95815 and 95838 zip codes. No, that’s not a ski slope, but a trend graph of all duplex sales.

Duplex Sales in 95815 and 95838 Zip Code of Sacramento November 2006 to 2009 by Lundquist Appraisal

It’s interesting to see what looks like two markets at hand above: One market below $100,000 and another market hovering between $150,000-$175,000. Market segmentation (bifurcation) is common depending on condition, location, size, or even the nature of the sale – short sale vs foreclosure vs typical arms-length transaction.

One more. What’s happened in the city of Rancho Cordova’s duplex market over the past thirty six months? No surprises. It looks similar to the graphs above.

Duplex Sales in Rancho Cordova Trend Graph 2006 to 2009 by Lundquist Apprasial Company

When it comes to duplexes in Rancho Cordova and surrounding areas of Sacramento, the majority of recent sales are reo properties (bank-owned). For example, in a recent duplex appraisal I just completed in a Sacramento neighborhood, 84% of all duplex sales over the past 12 months within this neighborhood were REO sales and 10% of all sales were Short Sales. It’s not an easy market when 94% of all sales carry some level of distress.

Contact me at 916-595-3735 or info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com if you have any questions.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com The Bursting of the Duplex Market in Sacramento

What is the relationship between home values and unemployment? A look at Rancho Cordova

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at Rancho Cordova sales over the past several years and simulataneously check out unemployment rates during that same time period. Is there a relationship between unemployment and the value of real estate? Generally speaking, the higher the unemployment rate, there is a good chance of lower home prices because the probability of buyers being able to purchase houses at higher prices decreases.

The trend graph below records all single family detached sales in the city of Rancho Cordova through Sacramento Area Metrolist. The unemployment figures are based on data provided by EDD. What do you see in the graph? Does anything stand out to you or surprise you about the sales (blue dots) or listed unemployment rate?

Rancho Cordova Sales and Unemployment Rates September 2006 to September 2009

Below is a view of the past 12 months of sales. As can be seen, the unemployment rate has risen sharply over the past year. It looks like overall the top of the market has seen a decline in property values. At first glance, when viewing a graph like this, it’s easy to gloss over the details, but when looking closely, it’s clear that there are less sales at higher levels over the past months, aren’t there? More specifically, there are few sales above the $400,000 level over the past 180 days.

Rancho Cordova Sales September 2009 and Unemployment Rate by Lundquist Appraisal Company

I don’t want to be misleading in any way by indicating that the unemployment rate is the sole determining factor for property values. That’s not what I am saying. I think there is a relationship between unemployment and the housing market, but that unemployment is only one of the factors involved. This point is illustrated perfectly by a current phenomenon in many sub-markets in the Sacramento Region. Bidding wars, multiple offers, and higher prices have become more commonplace for certain price levels. Despite unemployment rising, the lower supply of housing inventory over the past months has really helped to fuel this phenomenon because there have been more willing buyers than available houses (and prices are very attractive too because of how far they have come down from several years ago). Other factors to consider that may impact the real estate market are supply and demand, governmental regulations, interest rates, consumer confidence in the economy, etc…

Keeping an eye on the market and being in touch with local trends is all a part of the package for putting together very strong property tax appeals. Please let us know if you have any questions. You can call 916-595-3735 or email info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com.

http://www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com What is the relationship between home values and unemployment? A look at Rancho Cordova

Real Estate Market Trends: Past 36 Months of Sales in Folsom, El Dorado Hills, Rancho Cordova & Citrus Heights (August 2006 – August 2009)

Friday, August 28th, 2009

I put together a series of city-wide graphs to show the past three years of home sales within Folsom, El Dorado Hills, Rancho Cordova & Citrus Heights. Read More