You be the appraiser here. What do you see in the trend graphs below when looking at the past years of sales? Is there anything you notice to be different or similar when comparing the two graphs? Do you think the Sacramento County Assessor has kept in touch with declining property values in the Anatolia neighborhood of Rancho Cordova? If you are a home owner, please speak on.

Past three years of sales:

Past one year of sales: 

The graph below displays all sales in Sacramento County for duplex properties. I know, Sacramento County is an enormous territory, but sometimes viewing large ares helps to see an overall trend.

What do you notice when looking at all duplex sales in Sacramento county? It seems the bulk of sales are well under $300,000, and that the median sales price level easily lost $200,000 or more over the past three years. Ouch. There certainly are an enormous portion of sales between $100,000 to $200,000 too, aren’t there? 

Let’s take a closer look at a specific area in Sacramento by viewing sales in North Sacramento in the 95815 and 95838 zip codes. No, that’s not a ski slope, but a trend graph of all duplex sales.

It’s interesting to see what looks like two markets at hand above: One market below $100,000 and another market hovering between $150,000-$175,000. Market segmentation (bifurcation) is common depending on condition, location, size, or even the nature of the sale – short sale vs foreclosure vs typical arms-length transaction.

One more. What’s happened in the city of Rancho Cordova’s duplex market over the past thirty six months? No surprises. It looks similar to the graphs above.

When it comes to duplexes in Rancho Cordova and surrounding areas of Sacramento, the majority of recent sales are reo properties (bank-owned). For example, in a recent duplex appraisal I just completed in a Sacramento neighborhood, 84% of all duplex sales over the past 12 months within this neighborhood were REO sales and 10% of all sales were Short Sales. It’s not an easy market when 94% of all sales carry some level of distress.

Contact me at 916-595-3735 or info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com if you have any questions.

www.SacramentoAppraisalBlog.com The Bursting of the Duplex Market in Sacramento

The trend graph below records all single family detached sales in the city of Rancho Cordova through Sacramento Area Metrolist. The unemployment figures are based on data provided by EDD. What do you see in the graph? Does anything stand out to you or surprise you about the sales (blue dots) or listed unemployment rate?

Below is a view of the past 12 months of sales. As can be seen, the unemployment rate has risen sharply over the past year. It looks like overall the top of the market has seen a decline in property values. At first glance, when viewing a graph like this, it’s easy to gloss over the details, but when looking closely, it’s clear that there are less sales at higher levels over the past months, aren’t there? More specifically, there are few sales above the $400,000 level over the past 180 days.

I don’t want to be misleading in any way by indicating that the unemployment rate is the sole determining factor for property values. That’s not what I am saying. I think there is a relationship between unemployment and the housing market, but that unemployment is only one of the factors involved. This point is illustrated perfectly by a current phenomenon in many sub-markets in the Sacramento Region. Bidding wars, multiple offers, and higher prices have become more commonplace for certain price levels. Despite unemployment rising, the lower supply of housing inventory over the past months has really helped to fuel this phenomenon because there have been more willing buyers than available houses (and prices are very attractive too because of how far they have come down from several years ago). Other factors to consider that may impact the real estate market are supply and demand, governmental regulations, interest rates, consumer confidence in the economy, etc…

Keeping an eye on the market and being in touch with local trends is all a part of the package for putting together very strong property tax appeals. Please let us know if you have any questions. You can call 916-595-3735 or email info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com.

http://www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com What is the relationship between home values and unemployment? A look at Rancho Cordova

It’s always interesting to me to take a look at a market-wide graphs to try and make sense of what property values have done over a specified time period. When looking at data like this, I ask questions like: What is the lower end of the market doing? Have there been any changes in the upper end? What does the overall trend look like? Declining? Stabilizing after a decline? Increasing? What types of circumstances may have triggered a change in the overall price levels during various times over the past three years? New laws or regulations? Unemployment? Loan rates adjusting? Economic factors? Zoning?

All graphs below are based on information from Sacramento Metrolist between 08/28/2006 to 08/27/2009. The points on the graphs represent single family residential detached units.

Number of Sales in the Past 3 Years:

• Folsom:  2,183
• El Dorado Hills:  1,665
• Rancho Cordova:  1,732
• Citrus Heights:  2,374

What do you see? What does it look like the market has done in the areas below? Does anything stand out to you or surprise you? What do you notice about the higher end of the market on all of the graphs?

Folsom Real  Estate Market Trends: 

 El Dorado Hills Real Estate Market Trends

Rancho Cordova Real Estate Market Trends:

Citrus Heights Real Estate Market Trends:

City-wide data is important to look at because what is happening in the overall city can sometimes have an impact on smaller niches and portions of housing within the same city. This is not always true, but it’s relevant to at least be aware of what is happening in the overall market so that we can more readily decipher a city’s sub-markets.

On the other hand, one of the glaring downfalls of city-wide data is that information is too general to really draw neighborhood-specific conclusions from. As we all know, each city or area typically has a host of different types of neighborhoods, and these pockets of real estate can vary drastically from each other in terms of buyer perception, price range, and many other factors. For example, Rancho Cordova has two main zip codes and the 95742 zip code (Anatolia) is far different from most of the 95670 zip code (everything else). Or properties near Old Town Folsom may have weathered the market differently than those in Empire Ranch. Or Governor’s Village and Serrano in El Dorado Hills may show differing market trends because of location, square footage, year built, or some other factor.

With all that being said, I am very curious to hear your observations and insight about the city-wide trend graphs above. Feel free to comment above (just below the post title)  or email info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com. If you are considering the worth of your property and that it may be relevant for you to dispute your property taxes, please give us a call. The first step is to talk about your possibilities and if it looks like it makes good economic sense for you to appeal your property taxes (the answer is definitely not always “yes”). Let’s talk soon (916-595-3735). 

http://www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com Real Estate Market Trends: Past 36 Months of Sales in Folsom, El Dorado Hills, Rancho Cordova & Citrus Heights (August 2006 – August 2009)