This graph takes a view of the entire city of Stockton and is based on information in MLS for all single family detached sales (green dots) under $1,000,000. It’s interesting to note a dramatic change in the market beginning in the latter part of 2007. There had previously been few properties sold under $100,000, but that certainly shifted, didn’t it? It looks like the upper end of the market began to get squeezed harder around that time too. If you remember, housing inventory levels in the market increased drastically in the latter part of 2007, so we saw a steep decline in property values because of the vast oversupply of houses for sale (and therefore more agrressive pricing to compete against each other for available buyers).  

City of Stockton Real Estate Market Data:

• 13,745 sales in Stockton over the past 36 months (SFR detached)
• 1,679 sales between 01/20/2007 – 01/19/2008
• 5,924 sales between 01/20/2008 - 01/19/2009
• 6,142 sales between 01/20/2009 – 01/19/2010
• 1,172 sales in the past 90 days
• 580 current actives
• 730 current active short sales
• 866 current pendings
• 75% of all sales over the past year were bank-owned
• 11.5% of all sales over the past year were short sales

Keep us posted if you have any questions about the data above. You are welcome to comment below as well as share insight about life or the real estate market in Stockton CA. Please contact us if you have any questions about the local market and the property tax appeal process in the city of Stockton or San Joaquin County.

One of the first things I do to dissect market conditions is run a general search of all sales in the entire city or area where the subject property is located. In this case, I plotted sales in the city of Vacaville under $1,000,000. There were definitely sales above this level, but I took them out since the graph makes better sense without the upper-end of the market. Can you see a period of increase and then big decline? Do you notice too what’s happened to the upper level of the market? 

The next thing I do in the process of market analysis is take a look at a more narrow geographic search. This ends up being whatever boundaries I determine for the subject neighborhood. In this case, the parameters were less than one square mile and consisted of homes of similar age and overall quality. Does this neighborhood graph seem to follow the trend pattern above from the city of Vacaville?

Thirdly, I look at all listings, contingents and pendings within the immediate neighborhood. Though these are not sales, they can be strong indicators of what is happening in the market or where it is heading. For example, it says something about the market if all listings and pendings are higher, the same or lower than the most recent sales in the neighborhood. Lately, the supply of listings has been lower, so many properties are moving quickly and its common to see multiple offers and contract prices higher than asking price due to increased competition.

Next I put a square footage parameter on sales in the defined neighborhood to see what similar-sized properties are doing (as opposed to looking at all sales in the neighborhood, which definitely includes non-similar properties). Granted, the spectrum for GLA below is quite wide, but in this case there were few sales within the neighborhood even in this parameter, so it was important to widen the bracket a bit to get a better glimpse of the market. As you can see from this graph when compared to the one directly above, houses with a larger size tend to sell toward the middle to upper end of the neighborhood market. After doing these initial steps, it starts to become a bit clearer what sort of value range the subject might fit in.

The steps above are only a few initial steps in the market analysis process to help build a general framework for viewing the local market. I could honestly go on and on because there are so many factors to consider when appraising a house, and many conversations to have with local agents also.

Let me know if you have any questions about the valuation process or a need for any specific research as it pertains to your property or a tax appeal.

The graph is based on single family detached sales recorded in BAREIS (under 1.6 million dollars). There was only one sale above this level around 2.5 million, so it was most relevant to push that lone ranger to the side.

What’s been happening the Rancho Murieta real estate market? Below are two graphs consisting of all single family detached sales and listings in Rancho Murieta per Sacramento area Metrolist. What do you see? Does anything stand out to you?

I’d be very curious to hear from home owners in Rancho Murieta about their community. What do you enjoy most about RM? What do you think your neighborhood has to offer to prospective buyers? How has Rancho Murieta fared during the housing bubble burst? What sort of impact do you think the foundation troubles in Rancho Murieta South has had on the RM market?

Let me know if you have any questions about property value and appealing your property taxes in Rancho Murieta.

All sales over the past 36 months in Carmichael are listed below in blue and all sales in Fair Oaks are displayed in green.

It’s interesting to see an overall common trend for both Carmichael & Fair Oaks, though not ultimately surprising since the communities tend to overall have a somewhat similar appeal in the marketplace (though Fair Oaks has a slight edge as local Realtor Nate Sisam mentions below). Despite there being niches in both communities that may be superior to other areas, and a slightly higher median price level in Fair Oaks, it seems that the ups and downs of the real estate market over the past few years have been taken in stride for both of these communities. In fact, the median price level for Fair Oaks over the past year was only 2% higher than Carmichael during the first 6 months of the year, and 4% higher during the past two consecutive quarters. For reference, the latest unemployment rate in Carmichael as of November 2009 is 9.2%, whereas the unemployment rate in Fair Oak si 7.0%. The rate of unemployment in Sacramento County as a whole for November 2009 is 12.5%.

Sacramento Realtor Nate Sisam gives us further insight:

Fair Oaks and Carmichael are both established neighborhoods that offer people larger than overage lot sizes and diverse architecture. It has always been that Fair Oaks commanded a slightly higher price due to several key elements. Fair Oaks was one of the first established “Country communities” in the 20’s-40’s with a rich history in Olive and Citrus farming. Today that heritage is still evident when looking at property in Fair Oaks. Additionally the Fair Oaks Village brings the community together and adds to the charm of the area. From an accessibility standpoint Fair Oaks is slightly more freeway accessible. I would note that these communities are diverse and that pockets within each of them could be considered equal.

What do you think of the graph above? Does anything stand out to you? If you live or work in Carmichael or Fair Oaks, what do you enjoy about the community? If you had your choice to live in either of these areas, which would you choose? Comments are welcome below.

I know citywide graphs are not as descriptive as neighborhood-specific graphs or even if we looked at a specific square footage or age range in Fairfield. Just take the graph above for what it’s worth. It’s interesting to see six of the highest sales of the year over the past six months. Does it seem too that the lowest end of the market is a tad higher than the lowest point during the beginning of the year?

When looking at all model match sales, it’s not hard to see that the Assessor valued this property too high. In this case, the assessed valued was only about $30,000 higher than true market value, but this amount is still $300+ out of the home owner’s pocket for the year. It’s more common for me to help property owners dispute their taxes for residential properties when there is a greater savings of $500, $1000 or even thousands of dollars, but in this instance the home owner felt strongly about moving forward to contest the Assessor’s value.

Let me know if you have any questions. Remember, the deadline for appealing property taxes in many counties surrounding Sacramento is November 30, 2009.

www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com The Assessor’s Value vs. True Market Value

Isn’t it amazing to see the impact of the housing bubble burst? Three years ago many quadruplex units in Sacramento County were selling between $400,000 to $600,000, but the bulk of sales lately have been easily hovering around $200,000 +/- or lower. With prices so low right now, many investors have understandably been purchasing 4-plex units. The ideal scenario would be to pick up a quadruplex, have postive cash flow, and then re-sell the property in a number of years when the market turns around.

I actually just finished a property tax appeal for an investor who purchased a fourplex in late 2009 for under $200,000, but the Assessor still had his property valued in the high $300,000s. He is scheduled to pay over $1,000 too much in property taxes this year because the Assessor’s records are not consistent with realistic trends in the marketplace. This is a common problem for so many properties that sold near the top of the market and are now re-selling in today’s market.

Let me know if you have any questions. Comments are welcome. Ryan 916-595-3735.

www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com The Crashing of the Fourplex Market in SacramentoSacramentoTaxAppeals.com

The information above is based on all residential sales listed in Sacramento Metrolist over the past two years. Overall, it’s true that there were less bank-owned sales in Sacramento County during the last 12 months in comparison to the year before that. The foreclosure rate decreased by 5% overall, but the interesting thing is that short sales increased by 7% during this same time period. What do you make of that? Have short sales simply replaced what would have been a similar rate of foreclosure for this year? As a home owner or real estate agent, have you found banks to be more receptive to working with you to do a short sale? Comments welcome.

www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com The Up and Down Dynamic of Foreclosures and Short Sales in Sacramento County

What do you notice about the graph above? It looks like the upper end of the market above $550,000 has pretty much disappeared during 2009. It’s also evident that in the midst of a downward trend over the past several years that there have been few sales under $300,000. What else do you see? If you are a local Realtor or home owner in Gold River, what insight do you have into your market, and why is Gold River desirable to buyers in the marketplace?

Gold River Real Estate Market Data:

• 251 sales over the past 3 years
• 62 sales over the past 12 months
• 13 sales over the past 90 days
• 11% of all sales over the past 12 months were REO (bank-owned)
• 3% of all sales over the past 12 months were Short Sales
• 29 current active listings
• 13 current active short sale listings
• 6 current pendings

The lower Western portion of the Gold River area is comprised of a subdivision called “Gold River Station”. Since Gold River Station is not a part of the Gold River HOA, it was prudent to look at data separately from Gold River. Sometimes outsiders to the area get confused about Gold River Station and therefore lump it in with Gold River, but it’s not a part of the Gold River neighborhood.

It’s not hard to see that there is a big value difference between Gold River and Gold River Station. Whereas there are few sales under $300,000 in Gold River, it appears that most recent sales in Gold River Station sold under $300,000. What else do you notice when comparing the graphs?

Feel free to contact me at 916-595-3735 or info@SacramentoTaxAppeals.com if you have any questions about the local real estate market or any appraisal needs.

www.SacramentoTaxAppeals.com Gold River Market Trends: Past 3 Years of Sales